Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensifies, threatens Jamaica and Haiti
Oct, 26 2025
As the 11 a.m. advisory rolled out on Sunday, October 25, 2025, Hurricane Melissa was still a tropical storm, but the winds were already rattling at 70 mph and the storm was on a fast‑track toward rapid intensification. The National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that within the next 24 to 48 hours the system could surge to Category 4 strength, putting the Greater Antilles on edge.
At the heart of the forecast chatter was Nash Rhodes, meteorologist at FOX 13, who told viewers the storm would become a hurricane "shortly" during the 5:53 p.m. EDT update. Rhodes added that an upper‑level trough would likely steer Melissa away from the United States, pushing it east of Florida. Still, the danger to Jamaica and Haiti is anything but abstract.
Rapid intensification and forecast outlook
The storm’s erratic path over the past week has thrown models a curveball. After skirting the Lesser Antilles on October 18, the system gathered speed in the Caribbean Sea, moving west‑northwest at a snail’s pace of one mile per hour. Yet satellite data showed a tightening eye and a sharp drop in central pressure, classic signs of a storm ready to kick into high gear.
Model ensembles now converge on a scenario where Melissa reaches sustained winds of 130 mph by October 27, edging into Category 4 territory. The National Hurricane Center expects the storm to brush Jamaica’s northern coast before the trough swings it northeastward, sparing the U.S. mainland but leaving a trail of rain and wind across the Caribbean.
Ground impact: casualties and damage so far
Haiti has already paid a painful price. Four people have died – two in a landslide near Port‑au‑Prince, one from a falling tree in Marigot, and another in a collapsed wall in the Artibonite Department. Injuries tally at 15, and more than 450 homes have been damaged, according to the Haitian Ministry of Public Health.
In Jamaica, the situation remains precarious. The Ministry of Transportation of Jamaica deployed thirty buses to shuttle residents in Portmore, Spanish Town, Rockfort and Montego Bay. Meanwhile, the National Water Commission mobilised crews and equipment, ensuring clean drinking water for over 548,000 customers ahead of the onslaught.
Emergency measures across the Caribbean
Governments have rolled out a patchwork of precautions. Curaçao’s Prime Minister ordered school closures on October 18 to free up emergency personnel. In the Cayman Islands, officials handed out sandbags, Cayman Airways waived change‑of‑flight fees, and all dive tours on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac were halted on October 24.
The University of the West Indies evacuated its Mona campus students, while the Ministry of Transportation in Jamaica shut down all island airports on October 25. In Cuba’s Guantánamo Province, authorities ordered the evacuation of roughly 145,000 residents, and the United States Navy began moving several hundred non‑mission‑essential citizens from Guantánamo Bay Naval Base to Florida.
Meanwhile, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the broader Greater Antilles are monitoring Melissa closely, ready to activate their own response protocols should the storm deviate from current projections.
Broader regional implications and U.S. outlook
Beyond immediate threats, Melissa highlights the growing volatility of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season – already the thirteenth named storm and the fifth hurricane. Experts note that sea‑surface temperatures in the Caribbean are running about 1.2 °C above the seasonal average, feeding the storm’s energy.
"We’re seeing a classic case of rapid intensification driven by warm waters and low wind shear," said Dr. Elena Gutierrez, a climatologist at the University of Miami. "If Melissa reaches Category 4, the wind‑field will expand dramatically, and even areas that miss the eye could see gusts over 100 mph.
For the United States, the upside is that the upper‑level trough is expected to pull Melissa well east of Florida, sparing the Gulf Coast from a direct hit. However, heavy rains could still splash the southeastern seaboard, prompting flash‑flood watches in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
Historical context: the 2025 hurricane season so far
The 2025 season has been unusually active. By late October, the Atlantic has already produced 13 named storms, matching the record‑tying 2005 season up to that point. Historically, when a season produces more than ten storms by late October, the odds of at least one major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) striking the Greater Antilles climb to roughly 40%.
Melissa isn’t the first fast‑rising system to threaten the region this year. Earlier, Hurricane Ophelia intensified near the Dominican Republic, prompting similar evacuations and causing over $2.3 million in agricultural losses. The pattern underscores the need for regional coordination and robust disaster‑risk financing.
In short, the coming days will test the preparedness of Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and their neighbours. Residents are urged to heed evacuation orders, secure property, and stay tuned to local broadcast updates.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely is it that Hurricane Melissa will make landfall in Jamaica?
Current model guidance shows Melissa skirting Jamaica’s northern coast with a 65% probability of at least tropical‑storm‑force winds reaching the island. A direct hit remains uncertain, but the storm’s rapid intensification could expand the wind field, bringing hazardous conditions even without a landfall.
What measures have Jamaican authorities taken to protect residents?
The Ministry of Transportation dispatched thirty buses for evacuation routes, the National Water Commission pre‑positioned water treatment units for 548,000 customers, and all airports were closed on October 25. Schools remained shut, and the University of the West Indies evacuated its Mona campus.
Why are the United States and Florida not expected to be directly affected?
Meteorologists, including Nash Rhodes, point to an upper‑level trough that should pull Melissa northeastward, keeping it well east of the Florida peninsula. While peripheral rain showers may occur, the core of the storm is projected to remain over open water.
What is the historical significance of the 2025 hurricane season’s activity?
With 13 named storms by late October, the season matches the hyper‑active 2005 campaign up to the same point. Such early‑season clutter often correlates with a higher chance of major hurricanes affecting the Caribbean, making Melissa’s rapid intensification a concerning, though not unprecedented, development.
How are neighboring islands like the Cayman Islands preparing for Melissa?
Cayman authorities have distributed sandbags, cancelled all tourist diving operations on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, and Cayman Airways has waived change‑of‑flight fees for passengers affected by the storm, aiming to reduce travel disruptions and protect coastal infrastructure.